The COVID-19 virus has been the one thing on everyone’s minds since the start of 2020,

as what seemed like an isolated incident quickly
spiralled into a global disaster, infecting
– at the time of this writing, March 31st,
2020 – close to a million people.


It’s physically impossible to go to any
reputable news source and not be bombarded
with anxiety-inducing headlines about the
latest infection numbers and death tolls.
The question has probably crossed your mind:
Isn’t there more we can do?
How and when is this nightmare likely to end?
Well, based on the opinions of the world’s
leading experts, we hope to provide you with
some answers to those questions today.
Science writer Ed Yong, who wrote an article
over two years ago explaining why a global
pandemic was basically unavoidable, has said
that there are three potential ways the pandemic
can come to an end: The unlikely way, the
dangerous way, and the long way.
Yong posits that the unlikely way would involve
all the world’s nations suddenly cleaning
up their act, and simultaneously getting their
viral situations under control through a mix
of strong quarantine measures and mass-testing
rollouts,

 much like the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Considering how far the situation has escalated
already, and the poor job many major world
powers have done in both preparing for and
then controlling the spread, this particular
scenario feels more like a pipe dream than
a viable choice.
Take the US, one of the most developed and
prosperous nations in the world, which has
become the global epicentre for the pandemic.
All predictive models created prior to the
actual pandemic took it as a given that the
US would quickly create and widely distribute
an effective viral test, which is the foundation
of any successful pandemic response.
The US hasn’t done that testing and as of
today, doesn’t look to have a plan in place
for making tests available to a large segment
of the population.
While Italy and Spain have been ravaged by
COVID-19, for the US, the worst is yet to
come.

The US has a much higher population than Italy,
but fewer hospital beds per capita.
Many models predict that deaths and infections
will peak in April, possibly overloading the
healthcare system, but this model relies on
the assumption that all Americans will be
observing quarantine or social distancing
measures.
At the time of this writing, President Trump
has not ordered a national quarantine, and
many US citizens still aren’t taking the
social distancing measures seriously.
In other words, things seem bad now, but an
even worse disaster is coming down the track.
The second possibility for how the COVID-19
pandemic might end is also the fastest, but
it will also come with some pretty horrific
costs.
You may have heard the term “herd immunity”
thrown around lately.

This refers to allowing the infection to spread,
either intentionally or not, with the assumption
that those who recover will develop the proper
antibodies to fight off the virus and become
immune, protecting the overall population.
This is essentially the epidemiological equivalent
of allowing a fire to burn itself out.
The problem with this kind of approach is
that allowing a fire to burn itself out will
often leave the world with little left to
burn.
If this approach was taken – as the UK government
initially intended to do – millions would
die in the US alone, with tens of millions
worldwide.
The third scenario is the most realistic,
and will cause the least collateral damage
to human life, but it will also mean it’ll
be far longer before society as we know it
will return to normal.
The general idea is that we will have to continue
keeping up social distancing and quarantine
measures, putting greater focus on areas where
outbreaks flare up, until an effective vaccine
can be developed.
It’ll basically be like treating the outbreak
as a whole the same way as one would treat
a single case of COVID-19: Treating the condition
symptomatically while the immune system fights
off the disease.
While this may seem straightforward on paper,
it’s actually quite an intense process.
Not only will infections continue to occur
across the globe during this elongated period,
many vulnerable people will die as a result.
Sadly, the fact that more people will die
as a result of COVID-19 is inevitable at this
point.

The key at this stage is minimizing how many
of those deaths occur.
The actual creation of the vaccine will also
take quite some time – when factoring in
testing, development, and distribution, to
get full coverage it will likely take from
a year to eighteen months.
During that time, it’s likely that the world
economy will take a considerable hit as a
result of increased consumer caution under
social distancing measures.
Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that there
would be a 6.2% decline in US GDP as a result
of the outbreak, the biggest drop since the
Great Depression.
Experts state that this won’t mean two years
of continuous lockdown – it’ll be more
like several burst-like periods of social
distancing.
The legacy of COVID-19 is likely to linger
over the world for years to come, with millions
of people losing friends and family members
as a result of the disease – though the
legacy will be considerably less morbid under
this method than under an attempt at herd
immunity.
Just when and how exactly COVID-19 will end
though, depends on two factors scientists
don’t fully understand just yet: the virus’
seasonality and duration of immunity.
Many Coronaviruses, such as the flu and common
cold, are seasonal – meaning they have a
tendency to abate during the summer months.
Whether or not the same applies to COVID-19
will make a huge difference.
The same can be said for duration of immunity
– meaning how long a person retains the
antibodies for natural immunity after first
being infected.
Because the seasonal flu and common cold mutate
so frequently, the duration of immunity is
relatively low – typically less than a year.
The SARS coronavirus of 2003, which was more
severe and deadly, had a considerably longer
duration of immunity.
If we as a species are lucky, COVID-19 will
have a duration of immunity more like SARS
than the common cold, but for now, we can
only wait for scientists to collect the appropriate
data.
In the end, the COVID-19 virus will only be
defeated by outlasting it and attempting to
minimize the damage it can do to people and
society in the meantime.
There’s no magic silver bullet to solve
this situation – only conscientious and
responsible personal choices, mixed with sensible
government policy and vaccine development.
When the COVID-19 problem finally subsides,
most likely in either late 2021 or early 2022,
we’ll probably have to deal with a barrage
of secondary problems – from a shattered
or transformed economy to an international
pandemic of mental health disorders like PTSD.
But for now, while solutions are still being
developed by world governments, it’s probably
smartest for you to focus on keeping yourself
safe.
Remember: To keep you and others safe from
COVID-19, your best bet is to socially isolate
yourself and maintain good hygiene.
The rest, we’re sad to admit, is out of
your hands.