WHAT IF CORONAVIRUS SPREAD ALL OVER THE WORLD?






What we all know aboutthe coronaviruscalled 2019 nCoVchanges hour by hour,making it hard to predict howfar the virus might spread and how many of uscould become infected.


One Chinese government
expert, Zhong Nanshan,

says the epidemic may peak
towards the second week of February, but academics from
the University of Hong Kong ,

think that's more likely
to happen sometime

in April or May.

There is such a lot uncertainty
about this new virus,

that it's almost impossible
to make accurate predictions.

First of all, we don't
know how many of us

have the virus immediately .

Reported cases have surged
in the previous couple of days,

but that would be down
to increased surveillance

and testing.

There could still be thousands
who aren't coming forward,

either because they
have mild symptoms

or because they feel safer
waiting it out reception .

Next, we do not skills
easily the virus spreads.



On average, it's as
though each infected person has the power to
infect two or three more.

This is referred to as the
reproduction number,

and it's significant.

Up so far the
number of infections

is thought to possess
doubled every six days.

That gives us some
really big numbers.

Mass quarantines, the
extended public holiday,

plus putting the
public on high alert

may slow the spread of
disease from person to person,

but it's hard to understand how
effective these measures will

be due to
another big unknown.

We don't yet skills long it
takes for an infected person to show symptoms, nor
whether that person can

pass the disease on before
showing any signs of illness.

This raises doubts
over the worth

of temperature screening, which
has been a key control thus far.

Finally, we do not know
how severe the virus is.

It seems to be spreading
faster and wider

than Sars, which infected
8,000 people over eight months.